COVID Research
A Few Facts Make for a Slightly Less Confusing Picture
On May 22nd the Center for Disease Control revised the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) from COVID-19 infection downward to 0.26%. And as of June 10th, there have been 112,093 deaths from COVID-19 in the US. These statistics include non-tested individuals with a “presumed or probable” infection as well as those who “died after testing positive for COVID-19”. This is far fewer than CDC’s earlier predictions in April of roughly 300,000 to 600,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic.
This infection fatality rate is roughly in the same ballpark as the seasonal influenza: .1%. The influenza infection fatality rate is based on the estimates of 39 million to 56 million flu illnesses annually in the U.S. and the resulting 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths.
Given these most recent statistics, all public health policy around social distancing, shutdowns, and masks may be up for a revision. Or not, so let’s unravel this a bit.....
PCR Testing and Numbers
COVID fatalities only necessitate death from apparent COVID complications not necessarily a diagnosis based on PCR testing. The CDC Guidance, still in effect from April, states: “In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.”
As symptomology for an infection with this virus can include respiratory, neurologic, cardiovascular, and gastrointestinal complications, and comorbidity for obesity, and type2 diabetes that covers a lot of ground.
Research from China details labs for the COVID-19 patients who had moderate or severe infection: lymphopenia, hypoalbuminemia, higher levels of ALT, LDH, C-reactive protein, ferritin, and D-dimer. Those patients are often referred to here in the US as cardiometabolic disease cases with severe obesity on a Standard American Diet. Or, they could be referred to as the 21 patients from Wuhan, China who had been breathing the air there for several years. See Air Pollution below.
In either case there are a lot of sick people who can qualify for the above health conditions and labs.
The PCR testing for the SARS-CoV-2 virus was never intended to be a sole diagnostic indicator. The Creative Diagnostics SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Multiplex RT-qPCR Kit manufacturer states clearly in their product literature: “This product is for research use only and is not intended for diagnostic use.” They also include: “The detection result of this product is only for clinical reference, and it should not be used as the only evidence for clinical diagnosis and treatment. The clinical management of patients should be considered in combination with their symptoms/signs, history, other laboratory tests and treatment responses. The detection results should not be directly used as the evidence for clinical diagnosis, and are only for the reference of clinicians.”
The specificity/sensitivity of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Multiplex RT-qPCR test varies widely depending on manufacturer and performance of the test and can have a high degree of false positives as evidenced in one study: “We observed consistent false-positive results for N and N2 (60 out of 60 samples for both). N3 assay generated a false positive signal or inconclusive results in 13 out of 60 tested samples.” N, N2 and N3 refer to nucleocapsid proteins that identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
A recent review looked at false positives and false negatives as clearly admitted issues with the test due to viral mutations, possible replication in the upper vs. lower lung, and sampling issues related to where the virus is actually hiding: nasal swabs/throat swabs vs. bronchiolar lavage vs. blood vs. stool.
Asymptomatic Transmission
The CDC recently published guidance that the virus is not transmissible from surfaces and is mainly spread via human contact. Even though this information has been on the CDC website since May 22nd, it apparently has not made it to the public.
And according to June 8th Monday’s World Health Organization global briefing, infection rarely occurs between asymptomatic individuals. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s Emerging Diseases and Zoonosis Unit said: “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual, it’s very rare.”
The WHO immediately walked back those remarks at their briefing a day later where Van Kerkhove clarified that she was not indicating any changes in WHO policy or WHO’s stand on asymptomatic spread and that “between 6% and 41% of individuals may be asymptomatic based on estimates.”
But in an online Q and A on Tuesday, June 9th, Van Kerkhove re-stated “I was referring to some detailed investigations, cluster investigations, case contact tracing, where we had reports from member states saying that, when we follow asymptomatic cases, it's very rare – and I used the phrase very rare – that we found a secondary transmission," she said.
The reason for the response on the part of multiple scientists, including Fauci, who later criticized Van Kerkhove for her “confusing and irresponsible” comments is that current policy for mandatory masks, social distancing, contact tracing and subsequent quarantine is based on asymptomatic spread.
If she is correct, all of these policies will have less if any scientific foundation. Clearly more data and transparency is needed.
Masks
A study on cloth masks as used by healthcare workers, originally published before SARS-CoV-2, showed how porous they are. “The pore size of cloth masks ranged from 80 to 500 microm (µM). The poor filtering efficiency (for air pollution PM2.5 particles) may have arisen from larger and open pores present in the masks. Interestingly, we found that efficiency dropped by 20% after the 4th washing and drying cycle.”
The size of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is approximately 120 nm (nanometers) in diameter. There are 1000 nanometers in 1 micrometer [µM], so between 600-4000 viral particles can potentially migrate through each microscopic pore in a cloth mask. That is each pore, not each mask, there are thousands of microscopic pores in each mask.
One study looked at cloth mask use and found a significant increased risk for respiratory infections. Most medical organizations do not recommend cloth masks for healthcare workers due to the inability to filter out the virus and increased bacterial concentration in the outside of the mask that can migrate into the mouth and nose. N95 masks do filter viruses but are not recommended to wear for long periods of time.
Even the WHO explains the limitations of masks: “There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in the households or among contacts of a sick patient, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a preventive measure. However, there is currently no evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types) by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal community masking, can prevent them from infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.”
Air Pollution
“Many of the pre-existing conditions that increase the risk of death in those with COVID-19 are the same diseases that are affected by long-term exposure to air pollution.”
The quote above is from an analysis that spells out a clear correlation between breathing toxicants and dying of COVID-19. The study: Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: A nationwide cross-sectional study, examined the correlation between particulate pollution and fatal COVID 19 infection risk.
The study results are: an increase of only 1 µg/m3 in PM2.5 (particulate air pollution found in the air measuring less than 2.5 micron in diameter) is associated with an 8% increase in the COVID-19 death rate. These results were statistically significant and included secondary and sensitivity analyses.
If you don’t know what an increase in 1 µg/m3 in PM2.5 looks like think about San Francisco, where the PM2.5 today is 38 µg/m3. In November 2018, with the Camp Fire (Paradise CA) and other major fires burning 180 miles away, the PM2.5 levels were 178 µg/m3, the equivalent of smoking 8 cigarettes a day. That difference is 153 µg/m3 which translates to a 1120% increase in risk for death from COVID-19, meaning that you would have over an 11 times increased risk for a fatal infection with the virus.
In addition, the PM2.5 levels in Lombardy Italy were high and correlated with COVID deaths. For a global look at the relationship between air quality and COVID-19, especially to see improvement in air quality during the lockdown, see the COVID-19 Air Quality Report.
Internet Censorship
And finally, it appears that communicating information about boosting immunity to prevent or treat COVID-19 as a healthcare provider will result in a reprimanding cease and desist letter from the FTC/FDA. On the Alliance for Natural Health’s website see the linked article below or search for the article entitled: “Doctors Gagged as Feds Launch Censorship Campaign”. Some of my colleagues received these letters for posting about quercetin, melatonin, vit. D, vit. C, zinc, and vit. A. The Alliance for Natural Health is a legal advocacy group that supports providers and educates the public about integrative, functional, naturopathic and alternative medicine.
Resources for Functional Medicine Approach to COVID-19
EHS2020 Video Recordings including Follow-Up Q and A with Richard Horowitz MD, Jill Carnahan MD, Tom Levy MD specifically addressing COVID-19
Multiple resources exist for nutritional and botanical immune support for COVID-19 and below are two excellent resources:
Yanuck SF, Pizzorno J, Messier H, Fitzgerald KN. Evidence Supporting Phased Immuno-physiological Approach to COVID-19 From Prevention Through Recovery IMCJ. June 2020
ISOM International Society for Orthomolecular Medicine-Orthomolecular Medicine for COVID-19 and Viral Infections
This extensive resource includes IV vit. C protocols being used in US hospitals for COVID and research on vit. D, zinc, selenium, etc. for prevention
Environmental Health Symposium 2021
EHS 2021 Mid-April in Tucson, Arizona: More information to follow soon....
In this unprecedented time of COVID-19, data and federal/state regulations change daily but there are some things we know that will not change:
Immunity will continue to be affected by toxicant exposure especially if it has been compromised by prior vaccinations, Lyme and co-infections, or air pollutants in urban environments. Supporting resilient and optimal immune function will become even more essential to maintaining health and life.
Metals, especially mercury and aluminum will continue to be a toxic part of the exposome, especially for those receiving vaccines.
Inflammation, as it has played a role in increasing susceptibility to COVID-19, is an underlying mechanism for many disease states, especially diabetes and obesity. Environmental exposures play a huge role in these conditions and reversing them is not as simple as just dietary change.
Much has been speculated about the relationship of 5G to COVID-19 and information continues to surface on a daily basis. No actual research has been published in the medical literature at the time of this writing. EHS will report on this as it progresses.
At EHS 2021 we will address these and many more topics:
The toxicity of aluminum, how it gets into the nervous system, damages the immune system and research detailing effective ways to eliminate this metal from the body.
The true effects of global air pollution, who suffers, and how to protect everyone.
The science behind vaccine injury and how to address it.